Impact of Argentine wheat production on the Brazilian market

Argentina's wheat production exceeded forecasts, with the country reaching 18.5 million tons, of which 12.2 million tons will be available for export. This increase in export volume has a direct impact on wheat prices in Brazil, which is increasingly dependent on Argentine wheat. According to Luiz Carlos Pacheco, senior analyst at TF Agroeconomia, monitoring Argentine wheat exports will be crucial for Brazil, since the price of Argentine wheat is currently at US$232 FOB, while Brazilian wheat is traded between R$1,400 and R$1,480 per ton. However, this value could approach the levels of imported wheat in the next half of the year, if Argentine supply is greater. "The less Argentine wheat is exported, the greater the domestic availability will be, which could reduce FOB prices and, consequently, the CIF price, which directly affects the price of Brazilian wheat from April onwards. We must also consider the availability of wheat from Uruguay, of similar quality and at competitive ...