India is projected to produce less sugar than estimated due to early ripening and weight loss of sugarcane in key growing areas, with the most significant impact in Maharashtra. This could potentially limit additional exports, contributing to a rise in global prices and benefiting competitors like Brazil and Thailand. The production forecast has been revised down to 33.5 million tonnes from 35.8 million tonnes last season, with some trading houses predicting as low as 32.4 million tonnes. The early flowering of the cane crop, caused by abnormal weather conditions, is indicative of stress and has led to a scarcity of cane, with some mills facing shutdowns.