India is likely to produce less sugar than previously estimated by industry bodies and government agencies, with the cane crop maturing early and losing weight due to weather conditions in key growing regions, farmers and traders told Reuters. Lower sugar output could prevent the world's second-largest exporter from allowing additional exports, potentially propping up global prices and helping rivals Brazil and Thailand boost their shipments. India is estimated to produce 34 million to 34.3 million tonnes of sugar in the 2022/23 marketing year, which ended Sept 30, down from 35.8 million tonnes last season, according to trade bodies last month. . But the drop in sugarcane production in the state of Maharashtra, the main producer and third largest producer in Karnataka, due to the early ripening of the crop, has led some trading houses to further reduce production estimates. "Our current estimate is 33.5 million tons. We do not rule out a risk of a drop below 33 million tons, which ...