ISO lowers forecast for global sugar deficit in 2024/25

Published 2024년 12월 13일

Tridge summary

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has revised its global sugar supply/demand forecast, predicting a surplus of 1.31 million tonnes for the 2023/24 cycle, up from a deficit of 0.2 million tonnes due to reduced consumption estimates. The surplus is expected to increase to 5.89 million tonnes by the 2024/25 cycle. Global sugar production is projected to reach a record 181.36 million tonnes in 2023/24, with China contributing to the increase. The ISO also anticipates a decline in global sugar consumption in 2024/25. In contrast, global fuel ethanol production is expected to rise to 117.7 billion liters in 2024, driven by record exports and expanded production in the US and India. Molasses production is also expected to increase to a record 69.1 million tonnes in 2023/24, with strong demand primarily driven by animal feed and food additives. However, high fructose syrup production is not expected to grow significantly in 2024, with the US expected to export heavily to Mexico to offset weaker domestic consumption.

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Original content

In its first assessment of the global supply/demand situation, the ISO forecast a global deficit of 3.58 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the end of the 2023/24 cycle has produced a surplus of 1.31 million tonnes, up from a deficit of 0.2 million tonnes and 2.95 million tonnes in previous reports. This latest shift to surplus is due to lower consumption estimates. Global sugar production in 2023/24 has been revised up to a record 181.36 million tonnes. The changes are relatively small for the cycle ending on 30 September 2024, with a delay in the Australian harvest causing a change, albeit of just 0.22 million tonnes. The outlook for global sugar production in 2024/25 is also largely unchanged at this stage. A 0.35 million tonne increase in Chinese production is the biggest change to the November 2024 outlook. World sugar consumption is expected to reach 181.582 million tonnes in 2024/25, 1.285 million tonnes less than previously estimated. Estimated import and export volumes in ...

Source: Vinanet