Market doubts China’s ability to meet commitments on US soybean purchases

purchase 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans in 2025 and 25 million tonnes annually from 2026 to 2028. Market participants largely agree that China is unlikely to meet the purchasing plan in the near term, and many question whether it will be achieved at all over the three-year horizon. Reports indicate that six cargoes of U.S. soybeans are currently loading or awaiting loading this week at U.S. Gulf ports for shipment to China, with a seventh already en route. This marks the first delivery of U.S. soybeans to China since spring. Earlier this year, U.S. soybean futures fell to nearly five-year lows amid a lack of Chinese buying. Over three days during the week of November 16, China purchased 1,584,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans for delivery in the MY 2025/26, the largest weekly purchase in more than two years. In total, China booked 2,151,000 tonnes for November for delivery in the 2025/26, including a “good-faith” purchase of 100,000 tonnes made on October 30. The surge in sales ...