Optimism marks forecasts for the sugarcane harvest in Brazil

Published 2023년 2월 6일

Tridge summary

The article, originating from hEDGEpoint Global Markets, presents an updated forecast for the 2023/2024 sugarcane harvest in Brazil's Center-South region, which has seen significant improvement. The initial projection of 580 million tons has been revised upwards to 595 million tons, attributed to favorable weather conditions that have promoted grass growth despite posing challenges for crushing. Assuming a recovery rate of 7.5%, the total potential sugarcane crushing volume is estimated at 550 million tons. The article also discusses the potential variation in the sugar mix, a critical factor influenced by government decisions regarding the ethanol sector, with the current forecast at 46.9%. However, there is uncertainty regarding the government's future policies on biofuels and Petrobras' pricing policy, which could impact the final sugar production figures, leading to a potential range of 35.5 to 36.7 million tons.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The first estimate by hEDGEpoint Global Markets for the 2023/2024 sugarcane harvest in the Center-South already showed some optimism in terms of recovery. The first number was around 580Mt of cane. However, our view has changed and we are now even more optimistic. Given the recent hot and rainy weather in the higher producing regions, we expect a strong recovery. Therefore, we revised our total sugarcane volume to 595Mt. You must be wondering why Graph 02 shows 593Mt. While the precipitation has been extremely positive for the next harvest, it has hindered sugarcane crushing during 22/23. Looking at the TCH, the current harvest shows a possible recovery of 7.5%, reaching something around 73t/ha (Graph 01). This would lead us to around 552Mt of potential sugarcane crushing for the period. However, until the first half of January, around 542Mt of sugarcane were crushed, leaving only 3 mills in operation that use this raw material. In turn, the increase in precipitation increased the ...

Source: NoticiasAgricolas