Tridge summary
The article provides an analysis of hog and pork market trends over the past decade and into the current year, with a focus on price fluctuations, inflation, and demand factors. It highlights the historical pattern of hog prices increasing leading up to midsummer, driven by a corollary rise in pork cutout values, which results in packers paying more for hogs. This year, however, the usual trend has seen a decline, largely due to a lag in pork cutout value and reduced packer margins. Despite high retail pork prices, especially for bacon, and inflation outpacing pork price increases, strong domestic demand and lower corn prices are mitigating factors. The article also mentions a decrease in hog slaughter numbers and an increase in imports, with a forecast of stable corn prices and a potential rise in hog profits. It concludes by mentioning upcoming USDA reports and the significant impact of Chinese pork imports on pork export demand.
Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.
Original content
Hog prices usually rally as we move closer to midsummer. During the last 10 years, the live price for 51-52% lean hogs has averaged $54.03/cwt. in March, then $1.19 higher in April, $5.05 higher in May, $3.34 higher in June, and 32 cents higher in July. August prices have averaged $5.16/cwt. lower than July. The uptrend in hog prices is made possible by a similar rally in pork cutout values. Higher pork prices mean packers are willing to pay more for hogs. July is typically the peak month for pork cutout value as it is for hog prices. As the chart shows, this year pork cutout value peaked in March and since then has declined slightly. This year, both hog prices and cutout value have averaged a little different in March, April, and May. Ron Plain Packer margin—the spread between cutout value and hog price—is typically widest when there are lots of hogs to slaughter, i.e. the fourth quarter of most years. Packer margins are usually tight when slaughter hogs are scarce, i.e. late ...
Source: NationalHogFarmer
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