Pork exports from the US and the European Union are close to equalizing

Published 2024년 1월 16일

Tridge summary

Both the US and EU have adjusted their 2024 export forecasts downwards, with the US expecting just a 1% decline while the EU is revised down 3%, largely due to expected declines in shipments to China. US export volumes to China are a smaller share of total exports compared to the EU, accounting for 10% in 2022, compared to the EU's 27%. Global beef production for 2024 is expected to reach 59.5 million tonnes, with positive revisions for the US and Australia, offsetting declines in Argentina and the EU. Global pork production for 2024 is estimated to decline by 1%, and pork exports are expected to decline by 2%, with the EU, US, and Brazil competing for lower imports from China. Additionally, global poultry meat production for 2024 remains virtually unchanged at 103.3 million tonnes, while global poultry meat exports are estimated to decline by 1% to 13.9 million tonnes, with weaker demand from Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Japan affecting Brazil and the US.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Both regions have adjusted their exports downward for 2024 compared to last October's forecast, although the gap is narrowing between them, as US shipments are revised down to just a 1% decline, while of the EU are adjusted 3% downwards. The downward revisions in US and EU exports are motivated by the expected decline in shipments to China, the world's largest importer. Continued weak demand from China reduces export opportunities, especially for the EU. Although US export volumes to China remain a significant share of total exports, their share is smaller than that of the EU. In 2022, US shipments to China accounted for 10% of total exports, while EU shipments to China accounted for 27% of total exports. Furthermore, production in the EU has declined in recent years and is set to decline by 2% in 2024, further reducing exportable supplies. Expected growth in U.S. production and lower prices are expected to support the competitiveness of U.S. exports in several markets. ...

Source: Agromeat