Pressure on soybean premiums: market reacts to harvest and higher supply

The 2024/25 soybean harvest continues at a fast pace in Brazil and Argentina, driven by good weather conditions. This scenario, combined with the start of planting for the 2025/26 harvest in the United States, has put pressure on export premiums for the oilseed at Brazilian ports, according to an analysis by Cepea. The increase in the availability of the grain, mainly in the spot market, coincided with the expiration of financial commitments at the end of April. This factor increased the interest in selling on the part of producers, creating an imbalance between supply and demand and contributing to the drop in export premiums. Despite the downward movement, Cepea researchers note that many sellers are still betting on a price recovery in the coming months. As a strategy, there is a preference for negotiating forward contracts, hoping for better marketing opportunities. In the field, the numbers show significant progress. According to a survey by Conab, as of April 26, 94.8% of ...