Prices for rapeseed in Ukraine remain under pressure from low demand from the EU, and an increase in sowing areas in the EU may lower prices in the second half of the season.

A fairly high rapeseed harvest in the EU this season (estimated at 19-20 million tons) continues to pressure import demand, which has sharply declined in the first 4 months of the 2025/26 season, and favorable sowing conditions have allowed for an increase in the area under winter rapeseed, which increases production forecasts for the next season. According to the European Commission, the European Union in the 4 months of this season sharply reduced rapeseed and canola imports by 47% to 1.26 million tons compared to the same period of 2024/25 MY, mainly due to a sharp decrease in supplies from Ukraine and Australia, which was offset by an increase in supplies from Moldova. An increase in supplies of cheap canola from Canada, which has already been contracted and will start arriving in December-January, as well as from Australia, is also expected. Recall that according to the ABARES forecast, rapeseed production in Australia will increase to 6.4 million tons (6.1 million tons last ...