Production outside Africa drives global cocoa surplus

The global cocoa market is showing consistent signs of recovery after years of scarcity. According to StoneX, the 2025/26 cycle should register a global surplus of 287 thousand tons, a result of increased production in countries outside West Africa and a reduction in industrial grindings. Nevertheless, the weather remains the main risk factor for the stability of the sector. According to Rafael Borges, an analyst at StoneX, the high prices since 2023 have stimulated the expansion of plantations, while more favorable conditions in regions such as Ecuador, Brazil, and Indonesia have sustained productivity gains. In Ecuador, production is expected to grow by 38%, reaching 580 thousand tons, driven by improved management and more resistant varieties. In Brazil, estimates from AIPC and CEPLAC/MAPA indicate an advance to 215 thousand tons, reflecting good rainfall and the expansion of producing areas in Pará. "The supply is beginning to respond to the historically high prices since ...