China's reopening should impact balance between supply and demand for pork, but movement is still uncertain

Published 2023년 2월 3일

Tridge summary

Rabobank's analysis for Q1 2023 forecasts volatility in the global pork market, particularly in China due to Covid-19, population movement restrictions, and high meat supply. Despite short-term bearish sentiments, a demand recovery is anticipated in Q2 as Covid-19 cases decline. Brazil's pork exports to China are expected to grow by 2% despite macroeconomic challenges and China's import stability. The report also highlights potential impacts of grain prices due to drought in Argentina and smaller harvest in the US, health issues like African Swine Fever, post-Covid-19 consumption in China, macroeconomic factors, and competition with other proteins.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

According to an analysis released by the European bank Rabobank regarding the supply, consumption and global trade of pork in the first quarter of 2023, the demand for pork in China, weakened due to the last serious wave of cases of Covid-19, establishment of restrictive policies movement of the population, in addition to the high supply of heavy animals for slaughter, brought down prices and demand for protein. The forecast is that this volatility seen in the Asian giant for the pork sector should continue during this first quarter of the year, and start to show signs of improvement in demand at the turn of the second quarter of 2023. While the expectation of the sector's performance is considered bearish by analysts in the short term, there is a positive scenario of demand recovery once the cases of Covid-19 in China decrease substantially and life "returns to normal" in the country. There must be a pent-up demand in the foodservice channels, but there are also doubts about how ...

Source: NoticiasAgricolas