Rabobank raised its forecast for wheat production and lowered its estimate of the canola crop in Australia

According to Rabobank forecast, despite the unfavorable weather conditions in some major grain growing regions, the winter crops harvest in Australia in 2024/25 MY will increase by 1% or 0.5 mln tonnes to 47.1 mln tonnes compared to the previous season, which is 13% below the 5-year average. Thus, in comparison with the previous season, in MY 2024 the harvest will change: The reason for the decline in canola production will be not only a reduction in sowing areas, but also unfavorable weather conditions. The official harvest forecast is 5.5 million tons, although local analysts estimate it at 5 million tons. According to experts, the prices for Australian premium white wheat in ports will be 320-360 AUD/t (211-238 USD/t) at the end of 2024 and in the first half of 2025. Prices for feed barley in ports will be 290-320 AUD/t (191-211 USD/t), and the discount for malting barley will be minimal, if any, compared to wheat prices. Prices for non-GMO canola in the first half of 2025 will ...