Rabobank raised its forecast for wheat production and lowered its estimate of the canola crop in Australia

Published 2024년 10월 23일

Tridge summary

Rabobank predicts a slight increase in Australia's winter crops harvest for 2024/25, reaching 47.1 million tonnes, which is 1% up from the previous season but 13% below the average. The forecast includes a decrease in canola production due to both reduced sowing areas and unfavorable weather, with local analysts anticipating a harvest of 5 million tons. Port prices for Australian premium white wheat are expected to range from 211-238 USD/t in 2024-2025, while feed barley prices are projected to be 191-211 USD/t. Non-GMO canola prices are forecasted to reach 482-515 $/t in the first half of 2025, and prices for canola with GMOs are expected to be 8-12% lower. This comes amidst rising canola and rapeseed prices due to lower production forecasts and increased demand, following the EU's imposition of duties on oilseed imports from Russia and Belarus.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

According to Rabobank forecast, despite the unfavorable weather conditions in some major grain growing regions, the winter crops harvest in Australia in 2024/25 MY will increase by 1% or 0.5 mln tonnes to 47.1 mln tonnes compared to the previous season, which is 13% below the 5-year average. Thus, in comparison with the previous season, in MY 2024 the harvest will change: The reason for the decline in canola production will be not only a reduction in sowing areas, but also unfavorable weather conditions. The official harvest forecast is 5.5 million tons, although local analysts estimate it at 5 million tons. According to experts, the prices for Australian premium white wheat in ports will be 320-360 AUD/t (211-238 USD/t) at the end of 2024 and in the first half of 2025. Prices for feed barley in ports will be 290-320 AUD/t (191-211 USD/t), and the discount for malting barley will be minimal, if any, compared to wheat prices. Prices for non-GMO canola in the first half of 2025 will ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult