SovEcon expects sharp decline in Russian wheat exports in 2025/26

SovEcon has published its first forecast for wheat exports for the 2025/26 season, estimating it at 36.4 million tons against 43.7 million tons in the current season. The reduction is due to the expected decline in production volumes and low carry-over stocks. Russian wheat production in 2025 will decrease in 2024/25 to 78.7 million tons from 81.9 million tons in the current season. The reduction in wheat production will be partially offset by a decrease in its domestic consumption for feed purposes, which has increased significantly in the current season due to poor barley and corn harvests. The forecast for wheat exports in the current season was lowered to 43.7 million tons from 44.1 million tons amid slower shipments and a decrease in exporters' margins. The Russian government has set an export quota for wheat at 10.6 million tons for the period from February to June, slightly lower than the previously approved 11 million tons. A ban on barley and corn exports is being ...