The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict poses a price hike crisis for the pistachio market

The war between Israel and Iran and its fragile ceasefire status have brought further pressure to the global pistachio market, which was already strained by surging demand. A dried fruit and nut wholesaler in India's Madhya Pradesh told local media that pistachio prices have surged nearly 26% in the week since hostilities began. India is one of the world's major pistachio consumption countries, with other key markets including the United States, Turkey, China, and the Middle East.

Before the conflict escalation, the global pistachio market was already in a high-growth phase. By the end of 2023, a video showcasing a Dubai brand's pistachio-filled chocolate went viral on TikTok with 120 million views, instantly touching global consumers' taste buds. This "internet celebrity effect" directly caused Turkish in-shell pistachio wholesale prices to surge from $24 to $41 per kilogram, with the country's exports increasing by 40% in 2024.

Military conflict first impacted cargo logistics. The Hormuz Strait is the main export channel for Iranian pistachios, and the explosion at Shahid Rajaei Port in April 2025 interrupted 85% of container transportation, directly affecting the export plan of 120,000 tons of pistachios that season. This interruption had a chain reaction: AlGhurair Food Group in Dubai's UAE had to activate an emergency plan, redirecting a 30,000-ton order originally transported through Iranian ports to Turkey's Mersin Port, increasing transportation costs by 18%.

The situation is further complicated by sanctions and counter-sanctions. The United States imposed a 300% tariff on Iranian pistachios, forcing Iranian companies to re-export through third countries. An Iranian supplier stated that 40% of orders handled through Turkish agents ultimately destination to US customers. This gray chain became more fragile during the conflict, with Turkish customs inspection rates increasing from 5% to 25%, causing goods to be delayed 7-10 days.

Although the June 2025 ceasefire temporarily relieved military pressure, supply chain wounds continue. Iranian Pistachio Association data shows that 64% of inventory was consumed during the export window from September 2024 to March 2025, with the new crop not available until September. This gap, combined with California