US soybean exports continue to lag behind projections

running below historical norms and showing little of the typical seasonal acceleration. Figure 1 shows that U.S. soybean export commitments for the 2025-2026 marketing year have consistently trailed historical benchmarks. Commitments remained near the bottom of the five-year range through the winter and spring, reflecting limited early-season booking activity. Although export sales began to improve in late summer and early fall, the pace remains well below both the five-year average and USDA pace targets. Historically, roughly 70 percent of total soybean export commitments are in place by this point in the marketing year. Based on the five-year average pace, the U.S. would need approximately 30.9 million tons of commitments to meet USDA’s export projection. Currently, commitments total just 21.8 million tons, highlighting the substantial gap that remains. The largest wildcard for U.S. soybean exports is China. Historically, China has been the single largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, ...