USDA again sharply raised forecasts for global wheat production and ending stocks for MY 2025/26

Published 2025년 12월 10일

Tridge summary

In the December supply and demand balance, experts from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) again, as in the November report, sharply increased forecasts for world wheat production, consumption, and ending stocks in the MY 2025/26, but the market reacted quite calmly to this, as the changes correspond to previously published official data on

Original content

increased harvest forecasts in Canada, Australia, and the EU. December wheat futures in the US barely reacted to the improvement in the global balance, and even grew by 1-2.9% over the month. Yesterday they had the following dynamics: March wheat futures on Euronext in Paris fell 0.3% to €190.25/t or $221.2/t (+1%). Compared to November estimates, the world wheat balance for the 2025/26 MY has undergone the following changes: The wheat balance for the US and China has not changed compared to the November assessment, so the markets reacted rather restrainedly to such significant changes in the world balance, although the main pressure of increasing world production and supply of wheat will be felt by the market in the spring of 2026, ...

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