USDA has again sharply increased forecasts for global wheat production and ending stocks for the 2025/26 MY, but quotations hardly reacted to such a bearish report.

In the December balance of supply and demand, experts from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) again, as in the November report, sharply increased forecasts for global wheat production, consumption, and ending stocks in the 2025/26 MY, but the market responded to this quite calmly, as the changes correspond to previously published official data on increased yield forecasts in Canada, Australia, and the EU. December wheat futures in the U.S. almost did not react to the improvement in the global balance, and even grew by 1-2.9% over the month. Yesterday, they had the following dynamics: March wheat futures on Euronext in Paris decreased by 0.3% to €190.25/t or $221.2/t (+1%). Compared to the November estimates, the global wheat balance for the 2025/26 MY underwent the following changes: The balance for wheat for the U.S. and China did not change compared to the November estimate, so the markets reacted quite reservedly to such significant changes in the global ...