Brazil: Monthly wheat agricultural conjunct analysis by Cepea/Esalq/USP for September

Published 2021년 10월 7일

Tridge summary

The article reports on the commencement of Brazil's new wheat harvest in September, with expectations of record yields in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, and increased availability leading to market liquidity and price fluctuations. The average price of wheat in September ranged from R$ 1,490.89/ton in Rio Grande do Sul to R$ 1,670.44/ton in São Paulo, with all regions experiencing price increases year-over-year despite some monthly decreases. Most flours also saw price increases in September. Preliminary data shows that 447,510 tons of wheat were imported in September, with the average price being 24.7% higher than the previous year. Conab's estimates suggest a significant increase in wheat production compared to the previous harvest, resulting in a domestic availability of 14.303 million tons. However, the USDA maintains production estimates at 7.7 million tons, while global production is expected to increase slightly from the 2020/21 harvest.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The harvest of the new wheat crop in Brazil began in September, with some optimism among market agents. Expectations are for record yields in two of the main producing states, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. In Paraná, the yield, although not reaching a record, should also grow compared to 2020. And, as the wheat harvest advanced in September – especially in Paraná – and cereal availability increased, liquidity heated up in the domestic market . As for prices, they showed different movements between the regions monitored by Cepea. In this case, while the greater presence of buyers in certain markets and the retraction of sellers resulted in an increase in cereal prices, in other regions, the advance of the harvest increased supply and weakened prices. In September, the average price of wheat on the market available in Rio Grande do Sul was R$ 1,490.89/ton, a 2.6% decrease compared to August/21, but an increase of 24.4% compared to that of september/20. In Paraná, the average ...

Source: Brasilagro