Wheat suffers pressure from oversupply, but should recover

The price of wheat continues to be pressured by a surplus typical of the harvest period, remaining below the cost of production for many producers. According to TF Agroeconômica, the trend is for prices to rise again as the current supply is consumed, especially in the first half of 2026. The consultancy advises that farmers, cooperatives, and grain traders who need to sell in the physical market to cover expenses consider reserving a small part of the production to operate futures contracts on the CBOT or on A3 in Argentina, as a way to compensate for losses when prices react. For mills, the scenario is also challenging: low working capital and strong competition with reduced prices have limited margins. According to TF Agroeconômica, the use of the futures market can be an alternative to balance costs and secure cheaper raw material. The correlation between the physical price of wheat from Rio Grande do Sul and the CBOT quotations is 0.6268, considered relevant for hedging ...