2022 South African Citrus Outlook

Grapefruit

South African citrus production and exports can be divided into four main categories: grapefruit, oranges, tangerines/mandarins, and lemons/limes. Grapefruit exports are forecast to increase by 3% to 300,000mt in 2022. The increase in exports is based on an estimated 2% increase in production combined with continued global demand for citrus due to its perceived health benefits. China surpassed the Netherlands to become the largest export destination for South African grapefruit in 2021 with 77,707mt. Grapefruit exports to China grew 61.61% YoY after the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding to promote cooperation in 2021. Although small in volume, grapefruit exports to the US grew exponentially by 65% per year over the past six years to 8,827mt in 2021 due to growing demand and the continuation of duty-free access. The Middle East, Canada, and Africa are also growing markets for South African grapefruit although infrastructure constraints restrict exports to African countries.

Orange

Orange exports are forecast to increase by 3% to 1.34mt million in 2022. This increase is based on an estimated 3% increase in production and continued high demand due to the perceived immune-boosting benefits of Vitamin C contained in oranges, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Netherlands remains South Africa’s largest export market for oranges, accounting for 283,466mt of the total export market, although at a 2% YoY decrease compared to the record 288,412mt of 2020. Exports to Asia and the Middle East have grown steadily in recent years due to South Africa’s focus on growing these markets. Orange exports to the UAE increased 17% YoY to 105,057mt in 2021, with Saudi Arabia importing 20% more South African oranges at 74,370mt. Portugal imported 32% fewer oranges from South Africa in 2021 at 71,154mt.

Tangerine/Mandarin

Tangerine and mandarin exports are forecast to increase by 12% to 565,000mt in 2022. This increase is based on the large hectares of new plantings coming into full production, the industry strategy of prioritising export markets over domestic markets, and a surge in global demand due to the assumed benefits of Vitamin C in boosting the immune system. The Netherlands surpassed the UK in 2021 as the largest destination for South African soft citrus, growing 30.36% YoY to 107,571mt. Tangerine and mandarin exports to the top 10 destination countries exhibited double-digit growth during 2021, except for the UK and Canada. Exports to the UK, the second-largest destination for South African tangerines and mandarins experienced a 0.55% YoY decline while Canada only grew by 8.46% YoY.

Lemons/Limes

The exports of lemons and limes are forecast to increase by 4% to 520,000mt in 2022. The growth in exports is based on an estimated 4% increase in production and growth in demand from the Middle East and Asian markets. The Netherlands remains the main export market for South African lemons and limes even though the export volume shrunk by 2% YoY to 90,658mt. The decrease in 2021 follows a 102% YoY increase during the previous season growing from 45,046mt in 2019 to 92,152mt in 2020.

Russia-Ukraine Export Crisis Averted but Severe Flooding in KZN Hampers Exports

South Africa’s Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA) forecasts a 4% larger citrus export volume overall in 2022, with between 7% and 10% of that originally earmarked for the Russian market. South Africa will reach the peak of its citrus season in May 2022 and has diverted fruit destined for Russia to alternative markets. With the Russia-Ukraine situation managed, another disaster struck the South African citrus industry in the form of severe flooding in the Kwazulu-Natal region in April 2022. The port of Durban, which handles about 55% of all citrus exports from South Africa, was closed for multiple days and was unable to load or unload reefer containers to export citrus. Farmers delayed harvests and diverted export shipments to alternative ports. The region experienced significant damage to infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and the port, which will take time to repair and return to full operational capacity.

South Africa is set for a good production year across all citrus categories, accompanied by increased export volumes. A big challenge for the South African citrus industry is getting its produce to the correct markets. COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine related logistics issues are leading to limited and expensive freight space and long travel times. Furthermore, the damage to local infrastructure and the port of Durban is causing issues with getting trucks to the harbour and loading of vessels challenging.