Back and Forth for French Apricot Growers in Expectations of Similar Volume Like in 2022

In 2022, apricot production bounced back with 128,400 MT after two seasons of catastrophic results, which Tridge covered in the French Apricot Export Backed Up by Increased Production analysis last year. Still, growers look to the skies, as recent rains relieved CY 2023 apricot production in France. It remains to be seen if it will be enough to replicate last year's output. France's apricot acreage is also one of the factors affecting the overall situation as they decreased to 11,400 ha in 2022, a 9% YoY decline.

Recent rains have replenished a portion of the water reserves in the Pyrénées Orientales area, which is under threat of drought. This has helped alleviate producer stress, but there is still much uncertainty for the rest of the summer, depending on how the weather develops. Hail has struck some production areas (Bouches-du-Rhône, Gard), but the damage will be minor nationally.

Besides apricot acreage, fruit production in France faces a downward surface trend. Among central fruit-producing regions, the loss affected Occitania (-17% at 39,000 hectares) and, to a lesser extent, Auvergne Rhône-Alpes (-5% at 58,000 ha), while the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur area remains steady at 15,000 ha. Over the last five years (2017-2021), the national area reduction has reached -7%, hitting the three production zones in about equal proportions. Apple and stone fruit plantations were the most affected for several reasons: high production costs, low farm gate prices, adverse weather, and labor shortages.

Source: TradeMap

This year's apricot harvest started in W3 of May, and it is expected to be slightly lower than last year in volume. The forecast for 2023 is that around 125,000 MT of fresh apricot will be harvested in France. Lower yield will reflect on export as well. Germany will continue to hold firm its number one position, followed by Switzerland and Italy. Export volumes to Germany increased in 2022 by 30.55% YoY, mainly due to previous disastrous low volumes. Exports to Spain also recorded significant growth of 235.88% YoY up to 1,538 MT in 2022. Despite being a significant apricot producer, Spain dealt with adverse weather conditions, particularly drought, which caused an increase in imports. Spanish growers are hit with adverse weather this year as well, while Italy was impacted with severe rain and flooding recently, damaging apricot orchards in Northern parts.

Given the lower overall volume of fresh apricot in the EU, it seems like there will be more maneuvering space for French traders. So far, France has been spared major weather extremes, and besides volume, the quality of fruit is important to achieve higher prices. Tridge expects a slight recovery for French apricots in terms of export volume.