According to the latest Brazil Ministry of Economy data, Brazilian beef exports (excluding derived products) fell sharply in March 2023 to their lowest levels since November 2021, at 124.4 thousand mt worth $598.8 million, down 26% year-over-year (YoY) in volume and 40% YoY in value. The average export price eased a bit from the previous month (-0.9%), but touched a new low since April 2021 and fell 18% compared to the same month in 2022, at $4.81/kg. For the whole first quarter 2023, exports totaled 411 thousand mt worth $1.99 billion, down 12% in volume and 24% in value.
Source: Tridge and Brazil Ministry of Economy
The decline came after Brazil suspended its beef exports to China from February 22 to March 23, 2023, following the detection of a case of mad cow disease in the state of Pará. The case was afterward officially deemed "atypical" and therefore not posing risks of contamination to other animals or humans. Additional suspensions were later enacted to export beef into other countries, including Thailand, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Malaysia, Philippines, Bahrein, Kazakhstan, and Qatar. The ban on exports to China, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, and Malaysia was lifted on March 23, the ban on exports to the Philippines was lifted on March 28, while the ban on exports to Russia was lifted in early April. There are still no reports regarding the status of suspension in other countries. The largest export market for Brazilian beef is China, which, in 2022, had a market share of 54% in terms of volume and 61% in terms of value, according to Brazilian Meat Packers Association (ABRAFRIGO) data. Taking into account China's typical share in Brazilian beef export value, the loss of the ban was roughly around $300 million, but this could still be offset in the upcoming months. In any case, this development contrasts with the late 2021 suspension of exports to China, which lasted for 100 days, severely impacting Brazilian exporters, with losses of over $1 billion.
In 2023, total Brazilian beef exports are expected to subside at least in value due to lower prices. Total volume in 2023 might also see a decline, but only due to the recent temporary suspension of exports to China. Exported volume in the upcoming months could return to YoY growth as the outlook for Chinese demand has considerably improved compared to previous months, although there are ongoing expectations for this country to grow its domestic production. In addition, other countries aside from the top two (China and the US) are sharply increasing their beef imports from Brazil, including Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, Russia and several EU 27 countries including Italy, Netherlands, and Germany, according to Q1 2023 data from ABRAFRIGO. Other potential large markets that Brazil could tap into include Mexico, which just this March announced that exports from Brazil’s Santa Catarina state and several others are now permitted.