Egyptian Garlic Production and Prices for the New 2020 Season
The 2019/2020 production for Egyptian garlic is expected to start on schedule in late April to May. There were no particular weather anomalies this season or illnesses that have affected harvest, which has led to stable production quantity and good quality this season.
Stable Production and Prices for 2020
Due to optimal production conditions, the price for this season is expected to start at about the usual USD 907 per ton FOB which is the common rate for start-of-the season products. As the peak harvest time approaches and product availability increases, the price is estimated to decrease during the peak season from June to August.
Domestic Prices Not Currently Affected by Halt of Chinese Imports
However, recent suspensions of garlic imports from China have negatively affected global garlic quantity, leading to an expected increase in demand for substitute exporters, including Egypt. Due to the coronavirus outbreak, countries such as Indonesia, Jordan, Egypt have started to consider or have halted garlic imports from China.
Currently, this is not expected to affect prices within Egypt domestically. Deals signed previously to the outbreak are to be carried out as scheduled and with the country expecting optimal productions this season, quantities are not to be overly affected.
Demand for Egyptian Garlic Expected to Rise
As China, however, is the largest garlic producer with 40.1% of worldwide production, this could dramatically drive up global demand if the effects of the virus last longer than expected and more buyers start to halt Chinese imports.
The retail prices of dried garlic in Nepal, for example, have risen up from NPR 250 (USD 2.2) in mid-January to NPR 560 (USD 4.93) per kg as of now. This is expected to increase demand for garlic worldwide, including Egypt which has seen optimal production this season. As China’s second-largest garlic importer, it would be optimal for Egypt to turn to the Indonesian market.
