Global Pear Market Production and Trade Updates: Forecasts for 2020/21 Season

Published 2021년 1월 11일

Global pear production and exports are forecasted to fall by 5% in MY 2020/21 as the leading pear producing countries face change in production and consumption patterns. A fall in China’s pear production due to frosts and hailstorms whereas a recovery in production was seen in the U.S. and EU. China's production is projected to fall by 8%, the U.S. will see a recovery in pear production by 10% and the EU is expected to record a 13% increase in the coming MY 2020/21.

China, the U.S. and EU dominated the global pear production in 2019 as the three countries together accounted for 86% of the global production in the MY 2019/20. In MY 2020/21, it is projected that global pear production will fall by 5% to touch 22K MT. Following the production, the exports are also forecasted to fall by approximately 5% as the world’s largest pear producer and exporter, China experiences a loss in production due to unfavourable weather conditions. However, the U.S. and the EU’s projection for the pear production are positive as both countries recover from unfavourable growing conditions of the last season.

Source: USDA, *Estimate December 2020/21

China

China’s production forecasts are down by approximately 8% in comparison to MY 2019/2020. The country is forecasted to produce 16M MT of pears which is approximately 1.3M MT less than the volume recorded in the previous MY. China’s pear production was slashed in the starting of the current MY as Hebei province witnessed severe first in the month of April and then hailstorms in the month of May. The region is the largest pear‐producing region and the main source of export supplies. 7 out of every 10 pears in the global pear market come from China, and 1 out of every 2 pears in China comes from Hebei.

Source: Tridge

Lower production is likely to reduce export shipments of China and according to the estimates China’s pear exports are projected to fall by 11% in the upcoming MY. The country mainly exports to Asian countries like Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Hongkong. Indonesia which has the largest share in China’s pear export is expected to witness a fall in the overall volume of pear imports by at least 11% according to the projections.

United States of America

The U.S.’s pear production is expected to reach 720K MT which is approximately 10% more than the previous year. The recovery is due to the ideal weather conditions in top pear growing regions of Washington and Oregon as they witnessed ample sun, adequate rainfall and are expected to have sufficient water of irrigation in the upcoming season 2020/21.

Source: USDA, *Estimate December 2020/21

While the exports are expected to fall down by 15% due to lower demand in the global market, an increase in domestic production will reduce pear imports by 2% in MY 2020/21. The fall in imports is expected to be minimal as the domestic consumption is projected to increase by 13% to touch 680K MT which is an all-time high since the MY 2015/16.

European Union

EU’s production is projected to increase by about 13% following an equivalent increase in domestic pear consumption. The region records a significant increase in production as it recovers from last year’s loss due to pests and unfavourable weather conditions. The brown marmorated stink bug and the brown spot disease in Italy which is the main pear producing regions significantly impacted the production in MY 2019/20. Projections for exports remain the same as the previous MY, however, countries imports are expected to fall to 170K MT down by about 7% in comparison to the volume record in MY 2019/20.

Source: USDA, *December 2020/21 estimate