Low Expected Tomato Production in the EU Projects Increase in Imports

Published 2022년 11월 25일

The EU tomato production is expected to decline by 3% YoY to 6.2 million mt in 2022, driven by soaring input costs, prolonged periods of dry weather, and a lack of water for irrigation. Tomato producers in the EU are reducing the cultivated area and increasing the production of substitute crops with less financial risk. Exorbitant gas and electricity costs have forced greenhouse production to stop growing tomatoes this winter. As a result, EU countries will need to rely more on imported tomatoes from non-European origins as more Moroccan and Turkish tomatoes are expected in the market.

According to the European Commission, total EU tomato production is expected to fall by 3% YoY to 6.2 million mt in 2022 due to the reduced cultivated area in main producing countries. The reduction in the area has come as a direct consequence of various factors that have put tomato producers at severe financial risk and threaten the sustainability of greenhouse production in the region.

Prolonged periods of dry weather in top-producing countries, like Spain and Northern Italy, have primarily driven the drop in tomato production this year. Additionally, many growers faced irrigation challenges due to water shortages, particularly in Northern Italy, which further caused the decline in production estimates. Rising costs of fuel and fertilizers prompted many farmers to review their financial strategies in 2022, with some reportedly offsetting the impact by buying less fertilizer than usual or reducing planting areas.

According to Daniel Mervar, Tridge’s Origination Manager in Sweden, producers in Finland are refusing to grow greenhouse tomatoes in winter due to the high heating costs. "According to some greenhouse tomato producers in northern Finland, they would not grow tomatoes this winter due to the exorbitant cost of gas and pellets for heating the greenhouses,” he reported. Finnish companies account for about 40% of Finland's overall domestic tomato harvest during winter. Therefore, this could be an opportunity for alternative-origin tomatoes to penetrate the market.

As a consequence of the expected reduction in tomato production, EU countries will need to rely more on imported tomato products to satisfy the local demand. Therefore, Moroccan and Turkish tomato imports are expected to increase. In 2021, EU imports of fresh tomatoes increased by 14% compared to 2020, and this figure is expected to grow even more in 2022 with the projected reduction in production.

Morocco is the leading supplier to the EU, accounting for 70% of total EU imports, followed by Turkey. In Morocco, according to the Moroccan Association of Producers and Exporters of Fruits and Vegetables (APEFEL), thanks to the modernization of greenhouses, Moroccan tomato producers can double exports in the next export campaign. In addition, according to APEFEL, there will be an increased demand from Europe due to the energy crisis, for which Maroccan tomato exports can potentially double from the previous year.

Most of the Moroccan producers are currently working with a number of Canarian greenhouses and are now planning to replace them with climate-controlled greenhouses, which the federal government will support.

Turkish tomato producers can also take advantage and benefit from the shortage projected in the EU. Greenhouse producers in Türkiye are planning to increase their production volumes. According to Orhan Ceylan, Tridge’s Fulfillment Manager in Türkiye, producers expect a production decrease in the Netherlands, the EU’s central tomato trade hub, for which they are aiming to boost their planting area for more production volume.

In conditions where the energy crisis has slowed down or even completely stopped the production of greenhouse tomatoes in Europe, Morocco and Türkey are ready to respond to new market demands, maintaining high product quality by offering lower prices.