US Prospective Plantings for Minor Oilseeds: More Canola, Sunflower, and Flaxseed

Published 2022년 4월 4일

The prospective planting of canola, sunflower, and flaxseed is estimated 0.3%, 10%, and 11% higher respectively. Prices of most oilseeds have soared from a year ago, and farmers could favor these crops as they provide comparatively promising returns. These crops are produced on a much smaller scale than, for example, soybeans, but have the potential for rapid expansion. The US is a large importer of these minor oilseeds and their derivatives, and higher domestic production will be welcomed.

With vegetable oil prices near historic highs, and the outlook being mostly supportive of oilseed prices, US farmers plan to plant more soybeans, canola, sunflowers, and flaxseed, but slightly fewer peanuts. Soybean plantings will increase to a record 91.0 million acres. Read more about prospective soybean and peanut plantings here. Canola, sunflower, and flaxseed are produced on a much smaller scale than soybeans, and the US is a net importer of these minor oilseeds and their derivatives.

Record Canola Area to be Planted

The area estimated to be planted under canola in 2022 is a record 2.16 million acres, up from 2.15 million acres last year. Canola prices are up 81% from February last year, at USD 37.00/cwt. Canola yields for the last 5 years averaged 1,680 lbs/acre, and using this as an estimate for the 2022/23 season, production could be 3.5 billion pounds, the second-highest crop on record. Virtually all canola produced in the US is crushed domestically, and over the last 5 years, on average 1.16 billion more pounds were imported to be crushed. Furthermore, the US imports about three-quarters of canola oil consumed domestically. This indicates that there is still ample room to expand canola production in the US. Canola can be crushed by so-called softseed processing plants, which can switch between canola, flaxseed, and sunflower seed, and a rapid increase in canola production is not limited by domestic crushing capacity.

Sunflower Area Increase Less than Expected

Despite the anticipation that world sunflower production will tumble due to the war in Ukraine, US production is not expected to increase significantly. Prospective plantings are only 1.416 million acres. While this is 10% higher than in 2021/22, it is about the same as the 5-year average, and 7% lower than the ten-year average. Production could reach 2.2 billion lbs based on the 5-year average yields. In the US, less than half of produced sunflowers are crushed for sunflower oil, the rest is used as bird and other animal feed and in the food industry. The US imports more than a third of sunflower oil consumed locally. Sunflower oil is not nearly as popular as soybean oil, with only 582 million lbs of sunflower oil consumed annually in the US, compared to 23 billion pounds of soybean oil. Sunflower prices are 50% higher than in February 2021, at USD 32.10/cwt. Despite the price increase in sunflowers being more than that of soybeans, farmers still favor soybeans, as soybeans have comparatively lower input costs.

Flaxseed Prices more than Doubled

Flaxseed is still a comparatively minor crop in the US and production is erratic. Flaxseed prices are 135% higher than a year ago, at USD 31.10/bu. Prospective plantings for flaxseed are 360,000 acres, up 10.8% from 2021/22. Production for 2022/23 could reach 5.38 million bushels based on yields from the last 5 years. The US consumes about 10 million bushels of flaxseed annually, of which 85% is crushed for oil. Flaxseed oil is still a niche market, but US consumption is much higher than production. This indicates that flaxseed production, like canola, has a lot of potential for growth.