W11 Pork Update: China's 2024 Pork Import Forecast and US Pork Exports Growth

Published 2024년 3월 22일

In W11 in the pork landscape, China's pork imports are expected to increase in 2024, reaching 1.95 mmt, despite a projected decline in domestic consumption and production. The decline in domestic pork production by 3% YoY to 695 million heads is due to reduced meat supplies and concerns over ASF. Meanwhile, US pork exports saw a strong start in 2024, with shipments increasing by 6% YoY in Jan-24, driven by continued demand from Mexico and emerging opportunities in other regions. The USMEF highlights Mexico's significant role in US pork exports while noting promising growth in other markets.

China's Pork Imports Expected to Rise in 2024 Despite Production Decline

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a rise in China's pork imports for 2024. Despite an expected decline in domestic consumption, pork imports are projected to reach 1.95 million metric tons (mmt) in 2024, a slight increase compared to 2023's 1.55 mmt. This follows a significant decline from record highs of 4.38 mmt and 3.71 mmt in 2020 and 2021, respectively. An anticipated pork production decline of 3% year-on-year (YoY) to 695 million head is expected to drive the import rise. This decrease is due to reduced meat supplies, lower slaughter numbers, and lighter slaughter weights of pigs during fattening.

Domestic pork consumption in China is forecasted to decline by 3% YoY in 2024, reaching 57.8 mmt. This potential decline is connected to concerns about potential meat shortages. Live pig imports are expected to be lower than in 2023 due to concerns regarding African Swine Fever (ASF) disease and low market prices discouraging exports. The United States (US), Canada, Brazil, Spain, and Russia remain the primary sources of pork imports for China, while the US, France, and Denmark are the leading exporters of live pigs. The combination of a projected decline in domestic pork production and falling consumption creates a scenario for increased import needs in China. However, factors such as ASF concerns and low export prices might impact live pig import volumes and overall meat supplies.

US Pork Exports Starts 2024 with Strong Growth, Mexico Remains Top Market

The US pork industry is experiencing a promising start to 2024, with strong export performance driven by continued Mexican demand and emerging opportunities in other regions. Data from the USDA revealed that US pork exports commenced 2024 on a positive note. US pork exports in Jan-24 totaled 251.4 thousand metric tons (mt), representing a 6% YoY increase compared to Jan-23. This growth was mirrored by a 6% YoY increase in export value, reaching USD 682.1 million.

Mexico continues to be the leading destination for US pork exports. Jan-24 shipment volumes to Mexico reached 102.2 thousand mt, marking the second-highest level on record, trailing only Dec-23. While Mexico remains a dominant market, US pork is experiencing positive growth in other regions as well. Notably, momentum is building in South Korea, Central and South America, Australia, and Malaysia.

The US Meat Export Federation (USMEF) underscores Mexico's pivotal role in US pork exports, while also noting promising expansion in alternative markets. This trend underscores a notable shift in consumer preferences towards center-of-plate cuts like loins, signaling increasing favor among retail and food service sectors beyond raw material purchases for further processing