In W19 in the soybean oil landscape, global soybean oil production in the 2023 agricultural season is forecast to drop from 59.8MMT last season to 58.9MMT this season due to a drop in soybean oil production in China by 2.2MMT, in Argentina by 1.4MMT, and in the EU by 300K MT. Experts predict an increase in soybean oil production in Brazil of 700K MT and in the US of 100K MT. Similarly, global soybean oil exports this season are estimated to fall by 1.3MMT to 11.75MMT. High expectations are maintained for Argentina's exports, with a drop of only 750K MT to 4.25MMT, despite the severe drought the country has experienced. Soybean oil prices continue to fall despite drastically lowered production forecasts in Argentina. This is mainly due to Brazil's potential record-breaking seasonal soybean harvest.
India decided on Thursday, May 11, that duty-free imports of soybean oil shipped before March 31 will be allowed until the end of June after 90K MT of oil were stuck at ports and another 180K MT in transit due to the confusion about import rules. Earlier in 2023, the country canceled a duty-free import quota of 2MMT of crude soybean and sunflower oil for the current fiscal year beginning April 1, 2023. India mostly imports soybean oil from Argentina, Brazil, and the US. China imported 851K MT of edible oil in April, slightly lower than the 860K MT in March but much higher than the 260K MT in April 2022. According to the USDA, the week ending May 4 was generally bearish for US export sales. Soybean oil sales were at 300MT, a decrease of 98% WoW and 92% down from the four-week average, all to Canada. Cumulative exports of soybean oil totaled 117,700MT, down from 665,700MT in 2022. Lastly, at the auction conducted on May 11, Egypt bought 12K MT of soybean oil at a price of USD 1,025/MT which is USD 300/MT lower than at the auction held at the end of February.
