1. Weekly News

Turkey

Turkey's Table Olive Exports Rise 15% YoY

In the first ten months of the 2023/24 season, Turkey's table olive exports grew 15% year-on-year (YoY) to USD 175 million, compared to USD 152 million in the 2022/23 season. However, the export volume dropped by 23% YoY, from 84.75 thousand metric tons (mt) to 65.33 thousand mt. The increase in revenue is due to a 33.09% YoY rise in the average export price, which reached USD 2.69 per kilogram (kg). According to the Vice Chairman of the Turkey Exporter Assembly, the country aims to surpass USD 200 million by the end of the 2023/24 season and achieve 100 thousand mt for the 2024/25 season.

Turkey Lifts Ban on Bulk Olive Oil Exports

Turkey lifted the ban on bulk olive oil exports, allowing exports up to 50 thousand mt until Nov-24, when the new harvest season begins. This decision comes after pressure from local producers and exporters due to the ban initially imposed in 2023 to control consumer prices amid reduced production in Mediterranean countries. The move is expected to increase Turkish olive oil exports by USD 274.58 million. The country’s sufficient olive oil reserves and optimistic production forecasts for the 2024/25 season supported the decision.

Greece

Greece's Olive Oil Prices Expected to Decline

Greece's soaring olive oil prices, especially for extra virgin olive oil, are projected to decline due to an anticipated improvement in the 2024 harvest. The President of the National Interprofessional Organization for Table Olives highlighted that the 2024 production forecast is moderate to good, following previous years of reduced output caused by warm winters. Production is expected to range between 250 and 280 thousand mt, depending on favorable weather conditions. Producer prices have already begun to decrease, with extra virgin olive oil dropping from historic highs of USD 10.4/kg three to four months ago to USD 7.67/kg.

Spain

New Olive Varieties Discovered in Spain

An interdisciplinary research team in Aragón, Spain, has uncovered 30 new olive varieties among the region's centenarian trees as part of a project focused on the Bajo Aragón Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) region. This initiative identified 96 varieties, including 30 previously undocumented ones in the World Olive Germplasm Bank in Córdoba. Studies will be conducted to determine the newly discovered varieties' suitability for table olives and olive oil production. The project aims to preserve these unique varieties and address the growing concern over biodiversity loss in the olive oil sector.

Pakistan

Hazara District Emerges as Olive Oil Production Hub in Pakistan

The Hazara District in Northwestern Pakistan has emerged as a major center for olive oil production. The district's favorable climate and ample land resources make it ideal for olive farming. The Pakistani government provides subsidies and collaborates with research centers to promote production. According to a local olive specialist, Hazara has seven million olive trees planted on 25 thousand hectares (ha) of land, with an annual production of 1.4 thousand mt. By 2027, production is projected to exceed 10 thousand mt.

Italy

Severe Drought Threatens Sicilian Agriculture

Sicily, Italy, is facing one of its worst droughts in decades. Deficient rainfall and high temperatures are causing severe water shortages that threaten agriculture, including the region's production of olives, peaches, wheat, and grapes. The drought has also damaged the local ecosystem, disrupting migratory bird routes. This crisis reflects a broader trend of worsening droughts across Europe, with projections indicating that up to 80% of Italy's Alpine glaciers could vanish by 2060, further intensifying drought conditions in the future.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (W32 2023 to W32 2024)

Spain

Spain’s olive oil price increased slightly by 0.24% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 7.72/kg in W32, compared to USD 7.70/kg in W31. The country’s olive oil inventory decreased significantly in recent months due to rising demand and poor harvest in the 2023/24 season, and the situation will not change until the end of Dec-24. However, sufficient rains in winter and the absence of heat spring boosted production in the 2024/25 season and will put downward pressure on prices in the long term.

Italy

Italy's olive oil price increased by 0.69% WoW to USD 10.17/kg in W32, compared to USD 10.10/kg in W31 due to currency fluctuations. The country's olive production faces challenges from climate change, with increasing frequency of droughts and heat waves, reducing olive yield, and rising prices. As of June 30, 2024, the country's olive oil stock declined by 12% month-on-month (MoM) and 23% YoY to 179.42 thousand mt. However, since Italy primarily relies on imports from Spain, Greece, and Tunisia, the fluctuation in prices has yet to be reflected in the global market.

Portugal

In Portugal, olive oil prices in W32 stood at USD 11.4/kg, reflecting a WoW increase of 0.62% from USD 11.33/kg in W31. This rise is primarily due to the euro's appreciation against the US dollar. In euros, the price has remained consistent throughout the month. The YoY price has surged by 46.62% from USD 7.77 in W31 2023, driven by higher global demand and poor harvest in the 2022/23 season. However, Portugal's olive production is expected to recover in the 2023/24 season, with a 25% YoY increase, which should help stabilize the prices.

Tunisia

In Tunisia, olive oil prices increased by 0.63% WoW to USD 7.95/kg in W32, compared to 7.90/kg in W31. However, the MoM price has dropped 4.1% from USD 8.29/kg in W29, reflecting a global supply recovery. According to the European Commission, olive oil stocks in the European Union will fall 12% YoY to 360 thousand mt by the end of the 2023/24 season. However, the production will grow by 8% YoY to 1.51 million metric tons (mmt). In addition, similar to Spain, Italy, and Portugal, Tunisia’s olive oil production is expected to increase by 11% YoY in the 2023/24 season.

3.Actionable Recommendations

Focus on Quality and Branding to Sustain Export Growth

With the significant increase in average export prices for table olives, Turkish producers should prioritize quality control and invest in branding to maintain their competitive edge. Highlighting the unique attributes of Turkish table olives, such as the origin of taste, can appeal to premium markets. Exploring value-added products like olive snacks or infused oils could further enhance revenue.

Capitalize on New Olive Varieties for Market Differentiation

The discovery of new olive varieties in Spain presents an opportunity to develop unique products that stand out in a crowded market. Producers should collaborate with research institutions to assess these varieties' commercial viability for table olives and olive oil production.

Strengthen Climate Resilience in Olive Production

Facing ongoing drought challenges, Italian olive producers should invest in climate-resilient agricultural practices. Adopting drought-tolerant olive varieties, implementing efficient irrigation systems, and diversifying crops can mitigate the impact of climate change.

Sources: Tridge, Sondakika, Agrotypos, UkrAgroConsult, Olive Oil Times, PEefeagro