In W40 in the rice landscape, Indonesian rice prices continued to rise due to a drop in production caused by reduced harvest area and the impact of El Niño. As of October 2, the price of medium rice has increased by USD 0.0051 to USD 0.85 per kilogram (kg), and premium rice has increased by USD 0.0032 to USD 0.95/kg at the national average retail trader level. At the producer level, the price of harvested dry grain (GKP) fell by USD 0.00064 to USD 0.42/kg, while at the milling level, it remained stable at USD 0.45/kg. The price of dry unhulled grain (GKG) at the mill increased by USD 0.0013 to USD 0.48/kg. Similarly, medium rice at the mill increased by USD 0.0032 to USD 0.77/kg, and premium rice at the mill increased by USD 0.0032 to USD 0.85/kg. The government responded by providing 10 kg of rice for three months to 21.25 million beneficiary families (KPM) starting Sept-23.
In Sept-23, Indonesia experienced a 5.61% monthly inflation in rice prices. GKP at the farmer level increased by 11.69% month-on-month (MoM) and 26.70% year-on-year (YoY), while milled GKG rose by 9.26% MoM and 27.31% YoY. These price increases significantly affected farmers and led to a 2.27% increase in the farmer's index, the highest in 2023. Wholesale prices also rose by 6.29% MoM and 21.02% YoY, and retail prices increased by 5.61% compared to Aug-23. El Niño has caused a potential decrease in Indonesia's rice production in 2023 of around 1.2 million metric tons (mmt) with total production expected to reach 30 mmt. In response, the government is preparing strategic measures, including building government rice reserves through imports.
Pakistan is set to achieve a remarkable 63% increase in rice production to 9 mmt in the 2022/23 season, marking the second-largest harvest in history. This bountiful harvest is expected to enable Pakistan to establish a new export record of 5 mmt in 2023/24, reflecting a 40% growth from the previous year. The positive outlook for the harvest, competitive pricing in the global market, and the ban on rice exports in India have created excellent opportunities for rice exports. Additionally, Pakistan has regained access to markets in Mexico and Russia after many years, and its rice exports to Indonesia have also increased in 2023.
In the first nine months of 2023, Tiền Giang province of Vietnam significantly increased its rice exports by over 52 thousand metric tons (mt), reaching 138 thousand mt. This resulted in a turnover of USD 80.6 million, an increase of 115% YoY, and the highest growth rate of rice exports ever in the province. Additionally, Kiên Giang rice exports generated over USD 222 million in the past nine months, showing a substantial growth of 59.48% YoY. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reported that Vietnam's rice exports in the same period reached USD 3.66 billion, marking a 40.4% increase YoY. The average export price for rice also rose to USD 553/mt, representing a 14% increase.