1. Weekly News

Brazil

Tomato Prices in Brazil Surge 17.27% in Oct-24, Diverging from Broader Vegetable Price Decline

In Oct-24, tomato prices in Brazil increased by 17.27%, reversing the downward trend in other vegetables. This rise was due to fluctuations in supply driven by weather conditions, such as heat accelerating ripening and rain interrupting harvests. In contrast, prices of other vegetables, including lettuce, potatoes, onions, and carrots, generally declined.

Europe

Salmonella Strathcona Outbreak Linked to Sicilian Tomatoes Affects 266 in Europe

Europe is facing a widespread Salmonella Strathcona outbreak linked to tomatoes from Italy, particularly those from Sicily. From Jan-23 to Nov-24, 266 confirmed cases were reported across 16 European countries and the United Kingdom (UK), with Italy, Germany, and Austria being the most affected. Infections, primarily among women, have been connected to raw tomatoes in salads. Investigations have traced the contamination to Sicilian wholesalers, with recent outbreaks occurring in Tuscany and Umbria. This follows a history of similar outbreaks in 2011 and 2020, suggesting the bacteria may persist in agricultural environments. Authorities are conducting environmental investigations to identify contamination sources and prevent further cases.

Italy

2024 Processing Tomato Harvest in Northern Italy Hit by Low Yields

The 2024 processing tomato harvest in Northern Italy faced significant challenges, concluding in early Nov-24 with unusually low yields. Marked by persistent rains, delays, and high industrial costs, the season resulted in an average yield of 57.8 metric tons (mt) per hectare (ha), well below the five-year average of 74.3 mt/ha. Adverse weather, including heavy rains, during the transplant and harvest phases, and phytosanitary issues further compounded the situation. These factors led to a sharp decline in production, with only 2.40 mmt harvested, the lowest in recent years. Farmers and the processing industry are experiencing severe economic difficulties, prompting calls for government intervention and compensatory measures.

Netherlands

Netherlands to Boost Winter Tomato Production in 2024

In 2024, the Netherlands reported a return to regular tomato production levels after disruptions caused by virus outbreaks and energy costs. The country plans to produce 180,000 mt of tomatoes this winter, a significant increase compared to recent years. This will include 70% vine tomatoes and 30% cherry and smaller varieties. Other European countries such as Belgium, Spain, and Poland have also outlined their winter production plans with varying expectations. Spain anticipates a slight decrease in production due to reduced planted areas, while Poland focuses on niche pink tomatoes. Across Europe, production challenges persist, including rising costs, climate concerns, and competition from producers outside the European Union (EU) like Morocco.

Peru

Peru's Tomato Exports Fall 22% YoY in Oct-24

Peru's tomato exports totaled 826 mt in Oct-24, marking a 22% year-on-year (YoY) decline compared to 1,066 mt in Oct-23. The primary export destinations were Ecuador (55%) and Brazil (38%). A total of 26 buyers were recorded during the month.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (W47 2023 to W47 2024)

Mexico

In W47, Mexico's tomato prices decreased slightly to USD 1.92 per kilogram (kg), marking a 0.52% week-over-week (WoW) decline. Cooler temperatures have slowed production, potentially putting upward pressure on future prices. Merchants cite extreme weather conditions, including drought in the summer season and heavy rains in recent months, as key factors driving price volatility by disrupting crop yields and creating supply instability.

Morocco

In W47, Morocco's tomato prices remained stable at USD 0.40/kg. This stability is supported by strong export demand, particularly from France, which remains a key market for Moroccan tomatoes. Other EU countries, the UK, and Sub-Saharan Africa are also significant buyers. Furthermore, Germany's imports have risen, reaching 25,000 mt from Jan-24 to Jul-24, compared to 21,000 mt in the same period of 2023. However, adverse weather conditions may impact Morocco's total tomato export volume for 2024, including the lingering effects of summer heatwaves. Growers in critical regions such as Agadir, Mohammedia, El Jadida, and Oualidia are anticipating a decline in production, which could limit the country's ability to meet export demand fully.

Spain

Spain's tomato prices increased to USD 0.97/kg in W47, reflecting a 3.19% WoW rise and a 12.79% month-on-month (MoM) increase. The tomato season in Murcia has started well, with favorable weather conditions contributing to fruit quality and a smooth transition between crops. As of W47, production is operating at 80 to 85% capacity, with moderate rains in Murcia and generally lower temperatures compared to previous years, helping maintain crop stability. This positive outlook, combined with the adoption of new disease-resistant varieties, suggests that prices may remain relatively stable or experience further moderate increases as the season progresses. However, competition from Morocco may exert downward pressure, particularly in the early part of the season, potentially influencing Spain's ability to maintain high price levels. Overall, the combination of strong crop quality and strategic agricultural practices points toward a favorable pricing environment in the near future, barring significant shifts in supply or weather disruptions.

Türkiye

Türkiye's tomato prices dropped to USD 1.73/kg in W47, a 0.57% WoW decrease but a significant 188.33% YoY increase from 0.60/kg. The sharp price rise is due to ongoing drought conditions, severely reducing tomato yields. Additionally, rising operational costs, particularly for diesel and transportation, have outpaced the price growth of tomatoes, creating financial strain for producers. This has led to protests from farmers in key agricultural regions. Furthermore, due to supply constraints from Spain and Morocco, demand for Turkish vine tomatoes has surged due to extreme weather and water shortages, particularly in European markets. This increased demand and the production challenges other major suppliers face have driven Türkiye's substantial price increase.

France

In W47, France's tomato prices decreased to USD 1.90/kg, reflecting a 5.94% WoW drop and a 14.64% decrease compared to the previous month. This price decline comes as the French tomato season nears its end, with producers nearing the conclusion of their harvest. While prices for grape and fleshy tomatoes remain around USD 1.90/kg (EUR 1.80/kg), and round tomatoes at USD 1.58/kg (EUR 1.50/kg), the overall market conditions prevent significant price increases.

Sufficient domestic supply and quality inconsistencies at this late stage of the season have led to price variations across batches. Though prices are relatively low compared to neighboring markets, where prices for Dutch and Belgian tomatoes reach USD 2.32/kg (EUR 2.20/kg), the French market remains balanced with stable domestic stock levels. Due to strong local demand in Spain, the absence of significant imports, such as Spanish grape tomatoes, helps maintain this balance. Additionally, a shift in consumption patterns toward winter habits has reduced demand, further contributing to the downward price trend.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Enhance Disease Control and Safety Standards

In light of the ongoing Salmonella Strathcona outbreaks linked to Sicilian tomatoes, European producers must implement stricter food safety measures. Producers should adopt enhanced traceability systems to track the origin and handling of tomatoes, particularly those used in raw forms like salads. Investing in sanitation technologies and regular environmental testing for pathogens at critical points, such as harvest and storage facilities, can reduce contamination risks. Educating farmers and wholesalers on safe agricultural practices and investing in disease-resistant varieties will further help mitigate such outbreaks' recurrence, protecting consumer health and market stability.

Optimize Production Efficiency Through Technology

Given the weather-related production challenges in Northern Italy and other European regions, investing in modern agricultural technologies such as precision farming and climate control systems can improve yield consistency. Techniques like drones for monitoring crop health and applying fertilizers and pesticides more precisely can help reduce the negative impacts of unpredictable weather. Additionally, controlled-environment agriculture, including greenhouse and vertical farming systems, can protect crops from adverse weather, ensuring more stable production and reducing reliance on traditional outdoor farming methods. This approach will be critical for mitigating the effects of climate change and enhancing overall supply chain resilience.

Strengthen Export and Supply Chain Logistics

In response to fluctuating prices and weather disruptions in Morocco, Türkiye, and Peru, strengthening the tomato export infrastructure is essential. Improving cold chain logistics and expanding refrigerated storage capacity will help manage supply fluctuations, particularly during harvest peaks. Investments in transportation and packaging technologies, such as Modified Atmosphere Packaging (MAP), can extend the shelf life of tomatoes, reducing waste and maintaining quality for export markets. By enhancing logistics capabilities, producers can better meet the demands of key markets, such as the EU and Brazil, and stabilize tomato prices amid varying production conditions.

Sources: Tridge, Portal Do Agronegócio, Agraria, East Fruit, Food Fakty, Informatoreagrario, XEU Noticias