Russia: Analysis of crop prices by June 21, the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate affected grain

Published 2024년 6월 22일

Tridge summary

The grain market in Russia is experiencing a downturn due to the unexpected strength of the ruble, leading to a decrease in export prices. The domestic market is also seeing a decrease in prices for barley, as the gap between export and domestic prices is narrowing. However, a potential correction could prevent further price drops. Corn exports are still happening, but summer shipments may decrease due to low farmer stock levels. The global sunflower oil market is currently supported by a slowdown in Black Sea exports and concerns about the sunflower harvest, leading to an increase in prices.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The grain market reacted by lowering prices to the unexpected strengthening of the ruble exchange rate, but the subsequent correction may prevent quotes from falling further. The gap between export and domestic prices for barley is narrowing, which may reorient farmers towards selling the second grain crop within Russia. Sunflower oil is becoming cheaper, and global soybean prices have fallen to their lowest level since 2020 – these factors are causing concern among analysts, but so far oilseeds are holding up well. World market Factors leading to rising prices: Factors leading to lower prices: Russian market Factors leading to rising prices: Factors leading to lower prices: Summary: Prices on an export basis fell much lower than previously expected, reacting to the unexpected strengthening of the ruble to 82-84 rubles per dollar. Exporters are also forced to respond to the continuing decline in world prices, in some places outstripping the decline on the Russian FOB basis. Thus, ...

Source: Zol