World: Analysis of harvest grain and prices by March 17

Soybean

China

Wheat

United States

Published Mar 20, 2023

Tridge summary

Wheat Barley Corn Sunflower Soybean WHEAT World market Factors leading to higher prices: Risks for winter wheat amid drought in the US and Europe; Forecasts for a reduction in grain production in Germany in 2023 (-2% yoy). Factors leading to lower prices: Purchase of Ukrainian wheat at the Egyptian GASK tender with a significant discount; Extension of the grain deal for 60 days.

Original content

Russian market Factors leading to price growth: No significant factors were noted. Factors leading to lower prices: Extension of the "grain deal" for 60 days. Summary: Purchase prices of exporters for wheat are at a parity level relative to the calculated values. Further devaluation of the ruble will actually be compensated in parallel by an increase in the duty. Nevertheless, the forecast trend, according to the expectations of market participants, is to decrease. On the eve of the new harvest (the first cuts may start in three months) and taking into account the accumulated stocks, bearish tendencies prevail. BARLEY World market: Factors leading to price increase: No significant factors noted. Factors leading to lower prices: Extension of the "grain deal" for 60 days. Russian market Factors leading to price growth: The appreciation of the exchange rate outpaces the moderating effect of the duty. Factors leading to lower prices: Pressure from domestic buyers: against the backdrop ...

Source: Zol