Australia: Analyst has his say on wheat - and it's not pretty reading for grain

게시됨 2024년 8월 5일

Tridge 요약

Global commodity analyst Rory Deverell expressed skepticism about the potential for the world wheat market to rise, citing over-supply and ignoring bearish factors. He pointed out that the low stocks-to-use ratio was compared to over-supplied situations in the past, and highlighted that climate change has so far been good for global production. He also noted that the focus on the US wheat market comes at the expense of other producing countries like Poland. Additionally, he identified Europe's reliance on dramatic news and the potential for self-sufficiency in key importers like Turkey and Pakistan as factors that could decrease demand. Canola was identified as a potential bright spot, but the weak protein meal market could offset this. Soybeans, on the other hand, were described as having no good news.

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원본 콘텐츠

There are very few fundamental factors that could drive the world wheat market higher over the coming months leading into the Australian harvest. Those were the sobering views of global commodity analyst Rory Deverell, who told the Australian Grains Industry Conference (AGIC) last week that the market was guilty of playing up potentially bullish news while ignoring the more bearish factors. "You listen to the commentary around, we talk about things like really low stocks to use ratio compared to recent years and you begin to ask whether there's any wheat left anywhere at all," Dr Deverell, who runs Black Silo Commodities, said. "However, you dig a little deeper and you find we're not comparing current stocks to normal, we're comparing them to really over supplied situations." "It's a similar story in corn in Brazil, we're hearing how terrible things are this year, but it fails to mention the declines come off a record season last year." Dr Deverell said it was not just physical ...

출처: Farmweekly