Australia to reap larger wheat crop, export restrictions to counter supply pressure

Published Dec 16, 2025

Tridge summary

Australian wheat prices are expected to exhibit more bearishness in early 2026, as they track significant global wheat supply, though export capacity limitations due to strong sales of other winter crops could support prices. Australian wheat prices were largely rangebound for much of 2025, as thin imports from China, alongside economic and demand concerns, curbed

Original content

buyer appetite for forward coverage, based on data from Platts, part of S&P Global Energy. Australia is on track to reap a larger wheat crop following improvements in weather across most states, according to the Australian Bureau of Resource Economics and Sciences. ABARES pegged MY 2025-26 wheat production 4% higher at 35.6 million mt in its latest report Dec. 2, on the lower end of trade estimates at 35-37 million mt, according to Australian exporters. “Our expectations for [MY 2025-26] Australian wheat production are 35.6 million mt – aligned with ABARES following their December publication. As we have flagged in our recent reports, we believe USDA at 36 million mt is unlikely given it is difficult to realize such strong yield gains this late in the season,” said Vladimir Zinkovski, senior principal analyst and head of APAC Crops at S&P Global Energy CERA. Higher average crop protein is expected in the East Coast and South Australia compared to Western Australia, according to ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult