Australia will harvest a larger wheat crop, export restrictions are intended to counteract supply-side pressure.

Prices for Australian wheat are expected to show a more bearish trend in early 2026 as they depend on significant global wheat supply, although export capacity constraints due to high sales of other winter crops may support prices. Australian wheat prices have largely remained within a certain range throughout most of 2025, as insufficient imports from China, alongside economic problems and demand concerns, reduced buyers' interest in forward contracts, according to data from Platts, part of S&P Global Energy. According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), Australia, thanks to improved weather conditions in most states, may receive a larger wheat crop. In its latest report on December 2, ABARES estimated wheat production in the 2025-2026 season to be 4% higher at 35.6 million tons, which is at the lower end of the range of exporters' forecasts, which was 35-37 million tons. "Our forecasts for Australian wheat production in the ...