Vietnam: Beware of the risk of coffee surplus again

Published 2024년 10월 31일

Tridge summary

The article highlights the record high coffee prices during the 2023-2024 crop year, primarily due to a shortage in Robusta coffee supply, with prices exceeding $5,000 per ton. Despite lower export volumes, Vietnam achieved a record turnover of $5.43 billion. As the 2024-2025 crop year begins, coffee prices remain elevated, raising concerns about future supply, especially for Robusta coffee. Forecasts for major coffee-producing countries vary, with Brazil's output estimates ranging from 54.79 to 69.9 million bags and Vietnam projected to produce 29 million bags, exporting 24.4 million. Colombia and Indonesia are also expected to see increases in output. The article notes a potential risk of coffee surplus due to past low prices, but recent high prices have spurred investment in coffee cultivation, particularly in Vietnam's Central Highlands.

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Original content

Record prices due to supply shortage One of the main reasons for coffee prices in the world and Vietnam reaching record levels, even beyond expectations in the 2023-2024 coffee crop year (which just ended in September 2024), is the shortage of Robusta coffee supply. According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), the 2023-2024 coffee crop year is the one with the highest and fastest price fluctuations of all coffee crops to date. Export supplies have been in short supply since the end of the 2022-2023 crop year, leading to continuous increases in coffee prices since the beginning of the 2023-2024 crop year. At its peak in the crop year, coffee prices were at VND125,000/kg. In the world market, the 2023-2024 crop year is also a very high coffee crop year, especially Robusta coffee with a record high price in the past 30 years, thereby shortening the gap in coffee futures prices between London and New York to less than 20 cents/lb at times. Mr. Do Ha Nam, Vice ...

Source: Agriculture