Black Sea may hold back world wheat supplies into 2026

게시됨 2025년 4월 28일

Tridge 요약

The global wheat market outlook for 2024-2025 shows an increase in exportable world wheat supplies, reaching a second highest figure in the last six years, following reduced Chinese wheat import estimates. However, potential future supply concerns are looming due to predicted low harvests in Russia and Ukraine, which could make up to 30% of global wheat exports, leading to a possible return of low supply levels for the 2025-2026 marketing year. The article also touches on the impact of weather conditions and potential ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine on wheat production, and provides updates on wheat planting, condition, and yield forecasts in various countries like the United States, Argentina, Canada, and the European Union, highlighting factors that will influence the USDA's 2025-2026 outlook.

면책 조항: 위의 요약은 정보 제공 목적으로 Tridge 자체 학습 AI 모델에 의해 생성되었습니다.

원본 콘텐츠

The global wheat market narrative has recently shifted, though it’s easy to have missed it. Exportable world wheat supplies in 2024-2025 are no longer expected to fall to multiyear lows, a perhaps predictable outcome based on recent patterns. But the relief could be temporary. Meager possibility for the upcoming wheat harvests in Russia and Ukraine, which account for about 30% of global wheat exports, means that the thinning supply story could reemerge for 2025-2026, and potentially for real this time. Two months ago, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections showed 2024-2025 global wheat stocks-to-use (SU) among major exporting countries at a 17-year low of 14.56%. But this month’s updates put that figure at 15.89%, the second highest of the last six years. This largely owes to the slashing of Chinese wheat import estimates over the last three months. Late last decade, global wheat SU among major exporters averaged above 18%, so the 2024-2025 target is still below the ...

출처: Hellenic Shipping News