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Brazil represents 25.4% of global sugar production and 25.8% of demand in 2023/24

Published Feb 12, 2024

Tridge summary

The global sugar trade is facing supply constraints due to lower yields from India and Thailand, seasonal rains in Brazil, and climate challenges in Central America. Despite these issues, a record harvest in Brazil is expected to offset losses, and significant growth in sugar production is projected for Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey in 2023/24. However, speculative purchases are driving up global prices, with raw sugar prices reaching US¢28.00/lb due to the market pricing in El Niño.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Until January, the NY#11 contract accumulated an increase of more than 300 points, surpassing US¢ 23.00/lb. In December/23, there was a drop of more than 20%, due to high Brazilian production and exports, in addition to the review of Indian ethanol supply policy. According to StoneX, the beginning of the year and Asian harvests indicate tightness in sugar trade, especially in the first quarter, with India and Thailand below historical averages. Brazilian sugar supply is lower due to seasonal rains until March. The return of speculative purchases after March/24 in NY approaching US¢ 20.00/lb is influencing global prices. In 2022/23, lower Indian supply and restrictions on exports put more pressure on Brazil. The market began to price in El Niño, driving raw sugar prices to US¢28.00/lb. The closing of the 2022/23 harvest with a small surplus of 0.73 million tons explains the market's sensitivity. Production problems persist in 2023/24, but the record harvest in Brazil should offset ...
Source: Jornalcana
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