Brazil represents 25.4% of global sugar production and 25.8% of demand in 2023/24

Until January, the NY#11 contract accumulated an increase of more than 300 points, surpassing US¢ 23.00/lb. In December/23, there was a drop of more than 20%, due to high Brazilian production and exports, in addition to the review of Indian ethanol supply policy. According to StoneX, the beginning of the year and Asian harvests indicate tightness in sugar trade, especially in the first quarter, with India and Thailand below historical averages. Brazilian sugar supply is lower due to seasonal rains until March. The return of speculative purchases after March/24 in NY approaching US¢ 20.00/lb is influencing global prices. In 2022/23, lower Indian supply and restrictions on exports put more pressure on Brazil. The market began to price in El Niño, driving raw sugar prices to US¢28.00/lb. The closing of the 2022/23 harvest with a small surplus of 0.73 million tons explains the market's sensitivity. Production problems persist in 2023/24, but the record harvest in Brazil should offset ...