Climate challenges coffee, but 2026 crop should grow

Brazilian coffee farming reaches the end of 2025 still under strong climatic pressure, mainly on arabica, which is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation variations. According to an analysis by Itaú BBA, the year has again recorded a prolonged dry period, of about seven months, similar to the previous one, but with lower temperatures than in 2024. The lack of rain in October delayed the flowering and compromised part of it, but the return of adequate precipitation in November should ensure a satisfactory recovery in most producing regions. With this scenario, the bank projects a larger crop in 2026 than the one harvested in 2025, estimated at 62.8 million bags, of which 38.7 million will be arabica and 24.1 million robusta. The favorable exchange ratios between coffee and inputs throughout the year, coupled with the increased capitalization of producers, allowed for progress in cultural treatments. The good rainfall regime until April also strengthened the crops, creating ...