Coffee: Probability of La Niña increases; understand what the risks are globally

In Southeast Brazil, lower temperatures and greater risks of frost threaten coffee crops. Indonesia may experience harvest delays or interruptions due to more intense rains, especially in Sumatra. Vietnam experiences negative temperature anomalies during the phenomenon, but their impact on yields remains uncertain. In Colombia and Guatemala, more intense rainfall can damage trees or increase susceptibility to disease. Additionally, Central American countries face increased risks of tropical storms and hurricanes during La Niña episodes. Although historical data suggests correlations between La Niña and yield fluctuations, attributing yield reductions solely to the phenomenon is challenging due to other one-off factors. Overall, the event generates several climate anomalies in the main coffee producing regions, and, therefore, could present itself as a bullish factor, if it becomes active during key development windows, starting in the second quarter. Last Thursday (14), the United ...