Consultancy predicts 13.5% larger coffee crop

Brazilian coffee production is expected to recover in the 2026/27 crop after a cycle marked by significant losses in 2025/26 due to climatic adversities that hit the main producing regions. The expectation is for an increase in total supply, driven by the recovery of arabica coffee, which was the variety most affected in the previous cycle. According to a survey by StoneX, the country's total production is estimated at 70.7 million bags for 2026/27, which represents an advance of 13.5% compared to the volume recorded in the previous crop, of 62.3 million bags. The new cycle should be driven mainly by arabica, whose production is expected to reach 47.2 million bags, with an increase of 29.3%. Meanwhile, robusta coffee (conilon) is expected to decline by 8.9%, totaling 23.5 million bags. In the 2025/26 crop, arabica suffered a drop of 18.4%, with production of 36.5 million bags, a result of a prolonged period of water stress and high temperatures. In contrast, robusta performed ...