Crude palm oil’s discount to soybean likely until 3Q, may spur Indian demand — analysts

Crude palm oil’s (CPO) return to a discount against its main substitute soybean oil this month is expected to last until the third quarter, analysts said, ending a rare premium that was seen in the five months since November. The competitive price, in turn, has resulted in a slight uptick in Indian imports, and demand could also come from China as a soybean oil alternative in the wake of the US-China tariff war, they said. CIMB Securities head of research Ivy Ng Lee Fang expects CPO’s discount to soybean oil to persist through the third quarter of 2025 (3Q2025), as output is likely to remain elevated until at least October. “As long as supply continues to rise, we expect palm oil to stay competitively priced against other edible oils,” Ng told The Edge. The discount could hold until around September, when soybean oil production typically picks up due to seasonal patterns, said a senior trader at proprietary trading firm IcebergX Sdn Bhd. Soybean oil is also used for biofuel ...