Drought in Russia: Falling grain harvests and risk of protectionism

Published 2024년 10월 9일

Tridge summary

Russia's drought emergency has led to a significant decrease in grain harvest estimates, with the country's production expected to drop to 132 million tons from the record 158 million tons of 2022. This decline, along with concerns about global harvest reports and the Middle East conflict, could result in export restrictions, particularly on corn, to safeguard domestic consumption and control food inflation. The USDA has noted a 20% shortfall in corn across the area beyond the Urals, and there are concerns about declines in other harvests like barley, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds. The International Grains Council forecasts production below 120 million tons.

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Original content

The drought emergency in Russia has caused a drastic drop in grain harvest estimates, with potentially significant impacts on global markets. The lack of resources could push governments to implement restrictions on exports, especially for corn, with the aim of protecting domestic consumption and containing food inflation. In Russia, according to some experts, the hypothesis of export quotas is being envisaged, especially for corn, to avoid situations of internal shortage that would jeopardize supplies on the feed circuit. In addition to these fears, due to the less than reassuring reports on the health of global harvests, the markets are currently discounting the uncertainties on the developments of the conflict in the Middle East. After Iran's attack on Israel, wheat prices on the Euronext in Paris have recorded a strong rise. Autumn estimates have further cut the data on new grain harvests in Russia. From the record of 158 million tons in 2022, production had already dropped to ...

Source: InformateAgrario