El Nino is the biggest wildcard for the world’s most consumed edible oil from Indonesia and Malaysia

(Nov 1): Cooking oil traders are meticulously sifting through weather maps and production data for Indonesia in a quest for clues on how severely El Niño will dry out palm oil plantations in the world’s top supplier. Oils extracted from the palms of Indonesia are used in everything from candy bars to soap, lipstick and fuel, and stable supplies of the most used edible oil are essential for keeping global food inflation under control. The arrival of the El Nino weather phenomenon traditionally parches the farmlands of Southeast Asia, reducing output of the tropical oil. The impact on Indonesia, which supplies 60% of the world’s palm oil, will drive conversations among hundreds of growers and traders who descend on the island of Bali this week for one of the year’s top cooking oil conferences. While dry conditions have already sparked forest fires and haze in the Southeast Asian region this year, the effect on palm oil production is relatively muted up to now, with rainfall ...