EU faces long-term risks as US-China soybean battle reshapes global trade

China’s halt on US soybean imports is likely to flood Europe with cheap supplies, but the short-term gain could lock the bloc into deeper structural dependence on a small group of exporters. As the US-China trade war escalates, Beijing has cut off imports of American soybeans, shifting its sourcing to Brazil. The move has left US soy growers – many based in Republican strongholds – with a massive surplus, as exports to China collapsed from €10 billion in 2024 to zero in 2025. Under the new trade framework agreement with Washington, Brussels committed to facilitating imports of American soybeans. The current US oversupply allows the EU to do so at low cost – much as it did in 2018, when China first hit back against US steel tariffs by targeting American soybeans. The EU is heavily dependent on soybean imports for its livestock industry. Between July 2024 and June 2025, it has bought 14.5 million tonnes of soybeans and 20.1 million tonnes of soybean meal (a by-product used for ...