As of Thursday (June 12), the delivery price for first-grade French wheat at the Port of Rouen was $227 per ton, down $4 from a week ago. The price range over the past 52 weeks has been $224 to $265 per ton.
Argentine second-grade wheat was priced at $236 per ton, up $3; US No. 2 Hard Red Winter wheat was at $234 per ton, down $8; US No. 2 Soft Red Winter wheat was at $219 per ton, down $7.
In futures market trends, Friday (June 13), the most actively traded September wheat futures on the Pan-European Exchange closed at €202.75 per ton, down €2 or 0.98% from a week ago; Chicago wheat futures also declined by 1.98% during the same period.
Supply pressure continues to suppress the market
Although the US Department of Agriculture slightly lowered its global wheat supply estimate for 2025/26 on Thursday, European companies Strategie Grains and Coceral raised their EU wheat production expectations on the same day, primarily due to improved yield prospects in Spain and Southeast Europe.
Additionally, Russian wheat export offers remain competitive, with Black Sea wheat (11.5% protein) FOB prices for July shipment at only $221-224 per ton, approximately $10 per ton lower than French wheat, further squeezing EU export space.
On Friday, Tunisia purchased 10,000 tons of wheat through a tender (with optional origin), providing a brief boost to sluggish import demand. However, traders note that Black Sea wheat prices have a clear advantage for July-August shipments, and EU exports still face challenges.
Weather and Harvest Progress
European production regions have generally favorable crop growth conditions. In Germany, recent clear weather has alleviated the impact of continuous rainfall in late May, with wheat and rapeseed growth conditions being "almost perfect"; in France, brief high temperatures might accelerate winter barley maturation, but expected weekend thunderstorms will mitigate drought risks, with soft wheat crop ratings slightly improving last week.
Fundamental Data: EU New Season Wheat Production Raised
On June 12, the USDA raised the EU wheat production forecast for 2024/25