Fourth quarter to improve global dairy sector, Rabobank says

Adverse weather conditions, declining cow numbers and high production costs held back global dairy supply in 2024 and contributed to a year-on-year reduction in milk supply during the first half of 2024. However, with more affordable feed prices and lower inflation for farm inputs, margins are improving, according to Rabobank's latest report, analysed by the British dairy trade group. For the main exporting regions, Rabobank forecasts an improvement for the third and fourth quarters, resulting in a small growth of 0.14% year-on-year for 2024, followed by a larger growth of 0.65% in 2025. Global wholesale prices have been improving as the market reacts to low supply. According to Rabobank, quotations are starting to be reflected in milk prices at source. Compared to June 2023, EU prices are up 4% and Ireland is up 12%. China is an exception, where high milk production and weak demand have pushed prices down. Production changes and the ongoing EU-China trade dispute are likely to ...