Global oilseed market with US soybean futures prices fell for first time in five years in 2023

Global oilseed prices fell at the end of December 2023, with soybeans and rapeseed reaching new lows for the year. Concerns about the supply situation and global economic recession have led to the first annual decline in soybeans in five years. The market is closely monitoring changes in weather expectations for South America's harvest, as well as central bank monetary policies and geopolitical tensions. U.S. soybean exports continue to lag behind the previous year, affected by slow sales to China and challenges in the barge industry. Brazilian soybean export supply may decline in 2024 due to increased demand for domestic crushing from the biodiesel industry, potentially reducing soybean oil export supplies. Argentine soybean production is expected to be higher in 2023/24, improving crop conditions and potentially impacting global soybean supply. In the spring of 2024, U.S. farmers may diversify soybean plantings, influenced by growing demand for biofuels, while reducing corn acreage. The futures market and price ratios will play a key role in farmers' planting decisions in the months leading up to the planting season.