Grain and oilseed prices may have passed cyclical lows – CoBank

Published Dec 22, 2025

Tridge summary

Despite continued oversupply in global grain and oilseed markets, rising biofuel production and gradually improving export conditions suggest that prices may have already passed their cyclical bottoms. This outlook is outlined in CoBank’s new year-ahead report released by its Knowledge Exchange division. The report notes that US soybean sales to China have increased recently amid

Original content

a partial easing of trade tensions. However, Brazilian soybeans remain significantly cheaper, and record oilseed production in countries closer to China, including Kazakhstan, will continue to undermine US competitiveness in the Chinese market. As a result, a return to historic US export volumes appears unlikely. Global grain supplies remain ample, with larger harvests reported in nearly all major exporting countries for corn and wheat. This situation intensifies competition on international markets and continues to pressure US exports. At the same time, CoBank points to cautious optimism that China may resume purchases of US sorghum, which could provide much-needed support for feed grain prices. On the demand side, low prices are stimulating increased usage of US grains and oilseeds. Mexico will remain the most important destination for US corn, wheat and rice, as well as the second-largest market for soybeans. Demand for wheat and flour is expected to keep rising in sub-Saharan ...

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